How well did experts predict COVID-19 vaccines?
Hello everyone,
I hope you are safe and well. This month we investigated alcohol and the many popular claims you’ve probably heard like: “Red wine is good for your heart”. From its effects on anxiety and sleep, to guidelines and addiction treatments, you can read the full Alcohol review here.
Fact-checking Metafact experts on the COVID-19 Vaccine
Exactly one year ago - panic was setting in. People were stocking up on supplies and the stock-market collapsing amid surging cases & deaths via COVID-19. The world was gripped with fear and uncertainty. People were looking for answers from scientists. In particular, will a vaccine be discovered? One year ago, we asked that question to 14 vaccine experts from around the world. How well did they predict the outcome?
Although there are many unknowns one year-ago, all experts were optimistic about the chance of a vaccine coming for COVID-19. Why were they optimistic? Because the immune system naturally eliminates 99% the virus from the body wrote Professor William Petri, immunologist from the University of Virginia. "This is very encouraging for vaccine development…because it has a so-called proofreader gene that prevents mutations from being introduced during viral replication". Others like vaccine expert Dr Frederic Tangy from the Pasteur Institute wrote that many factors will make a COVID-19 vaccine “rapidly discovered”.
Although the experts were sure of the science one year ago, they weren’t as positive about the time-frame for a commercial product, which in the past has taken many years. “Vaccine development, approval, and deployment takes considerable time (years)” wrote Professor Julian Leibowitz from Texas A&M. No one expected the safety approval, production and rollout to begin by the end of 2020.
The experts were correct in being optimistic about the speed of discovering the vaccine. But the most surprising outcome that they didn’t predict, was the unprecedented pace of safety approvals, production and roll-out where as of yesterday 300million people have been vaccinated, including 88million in the USA and 23 million in the UK. The timescale is nothing short of a miracle - but is what can be achieved when science collaborates effectively with governments and industry.
Meet the new Metafact team!
I am excited to announce that during February we have hired 2 new editors which you will be hearing much more from over the coming weeks.
Eva Hamrud is a PhD researcher studying Stem Cells at King’s College London. She wrote a few consensus articles for us last year and is an insightful, evidence-based writer. Eva will be Metafact editor for our consensus articles and newsletter. This week, Eva will be tackling the claim that the COVID-19 vaccines cause infertility that is being shared around. You can now expect consistent weekly consensus articles from us via Eva!
Pablo Izquierdo is a neuroscientist about to finish up a PhD at University College London. Pablo has been writing for us, including leading our Neuroscience reviews from last year like Mindfulness and Habits. Pablo will be Metafact Review editor, while helping write consensus articles. Our member monthly voting will start again soon, so stay tuned to hear from Pablo.
I am very excited about these developments as they will allow us to deliver more consistent high-quality weekly content to help our subscribers and members.
May the facts be with you!
Ben
Is red wine good for you?
Metafact Review on Alcohol
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Most of us drink alcohol, but for different reasons. Many people drink for enjoyment and socializing with friends. Others drink to relax and unwind from a stressful day. Over the years, many claims get thrown around like "Red wine is good for you" or "Alcohol causes cancer". Are these true? What is the evidence behind them? And what level of alcohol consumption is safe?
This month we investigated alcohol with 30 independent experts from across the globe. Here's what we found...