Are some people already feeling the effects of climate change?
Hello everyone,
The COP26 meeting earlier this month brought together many scientists and political figures to discuss how to tackle the issue of climate change. Like most conversations about climate change, the focus was on the future and what we can do to slow or stop global temperatures rising.
Worst case scenarios depict mass migration of people as large areas become uninhabitable, but climate change has been ongoing for some time now - is anyone feeling the impacts of climate change already? We asked 10 experts in climate change, biometeorology and climatology, ‘Are some people already being impacted by climate change?’, here is what we found…
EXPERT CONSENSUS
Are some people already feeling the effects of climate change?
10 experts answered ‘Near Certain’
What is the evidence that people are being impacted by climate change?
All 10 experts responded with ‘Near Certain’ to answer the question ‘Are some people already being impacted by climate change?’. Professor Jennifer Fitchett, an expert in biometeorology from Witwatersrand University in South Africa, says “Many people still think of climate change as a phenomenon that we will only face in the distant future. Perhaps that’s partly because climate change projections about rising temperatures and extreme weather events are tied to future dates: 2030, 2050, or 2100, for instance. But it’s important to realise that we already are experiencing climate change, and have done so for some time now. Over the past century, global temperatures have increased by approximately 1°C. Sea level rise is already starting to affect certain low-lying coastal communities. The world is experiencing more frequent and intense extreme climate events.”
Although the impacts of climate change are wide-ranging and occur across the globe, many of them have been carefully recorded and studied. Dr Lisa Schipper, an expert in environmental social science from Oxford University in the UK, says “yes, all over the world. This is best documented in the recent IPCC reports … There are thousands of studies documenting these impacts.”
How many people are feeling the effects of climate change?
Dr Max Callaghan, an expert in climate science from the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change in Germany, says “According to a recent study, 85% of the world's population live in areas where either warming or changes in precipitation can be attributed to human influence on the climate. That means we are unable to explain those changes except as being caused by climate change. These changes have direct and indirect impacts on people's lives”
How are people impacted by climate change?
Climate change can cause a higher frequency of extreme temperatures, droughts, and extreme weather events like tropical cyclones - all of which severely impact our lives.
The extent to which people are affected by climate change depends on where they live. Professor Fitchett says southern Africa is “is particularly vulnerable to climatic changes. The region has already been experiencing climate changes that are more rapid, and with impacts that are more severe than the global average.” For example, Professor Fitchett says “The most severe, and best known, drought in southern Africa in recent years was the “Day Zero” crisis in Cape Town. While increasing pressure for water in the City of Cape Town played a role in this, a longer-term poleward displacement in the winter-rain-bearing westerlies which bring the cold fronts and rain to Cape Town during the winter months was a significant contributor to this drought.”
Dr Michael Wehner, an expert in climatology from Lawrence Berkley National Laboratory in the USA, says “People have died, lost their homes, and suffered financially in many ways. Event impact attribution science tries to quantify these losses and damages. For instance, in my own work, we estimate that climate change causes $13 billion extra damage from flooding alone in Hurricane Harvey (out of a total $90 billion). Or there were 70,000 excess deaths in the 2003 Central European heatwave. This event was made twice as likely from climate change, so some fraction of that large mortality is due to climate change” The WHO predicts that between 2030 and 2050, climate change will cause around 250 000 additional deaths a year and the additional healthcare costs will be 2-4 billion US dollars per year by 2030.
Climate change also impacts ecosystems. For example, Professor Fitchett describes “In South Africa, scientists have recorded advances in the timing of apple and pear flowering in the southwestern Cape, and of Jacaranda flowering in the Gauteng City Region. Warmer sea surface temperatures have also resulted in a delay in the sardine run along the KwaZulu-Natal south coast.” These changes make significant impacts on agriculture and tourism, which can result in financial losses.
The takeaway:
People all over the world are feeling the impacts of climate change. This is predicted to increase in the coming years.
May the facts be with you!
Eva
Is AI an existential threat to humanity?
Exclusive reviews for our fact-loving members.
Each month we investigate a topic voted by the community by asking the world's top experts to review the evidence. Reviews are what you need to know. You can read all the reviews online here.
Artificial intelligence (AI) may sound like an exotic, futuristic concept. However, AI is in your pocket, filters your spam, helps you choose what to watch on Netflix and may even answer your questions if you say “Siri'' or “Alexa” out loud. But what are the benefits, downsides and dangers of AI? This month, we have asked our experts to get their feet wet on this matter. Can we trust self-driving cars? Can AI improve our health and our society? How similar can AI be to a human being? Could AIs be a real threat to us? Here is what we learned…